The COVID-19 crisis has changed the world in many ways. For example, international migration declined significantly in 2020, which likely led to a sharp slowdown in population growth in Germany that year. Nevertheless, the population is expected to continue growing overall in the coming years—especially in certain regions, as the Gewos Institute for Urban, Regional, and Housing Research recently analyzed. (Source: www.haufe.de)
Among the major metropolitan areas, researchers predict the greatest growth for Berlin. The population in the federal capital is expected to rise by 6.6 percent to 2035. A strong increase of 6.2 percent is also anticipated in Frankfurt am Main. Strong population growth is also forecast for Cologne (4.8 percent) and Hamburg (4.7 percent).
Overall, the institute expects that Germany’s population will grow over the next 15 years, even if the growth is not expected to match the high rate of the past decade. By 2035, the population is projected to rise by 0.7 percent to 83.7 million.
Strong Economic Growth in Major Cities in Eastern Germany
The Prognos Institute has also just published a study on the post-COVID-19 era. However, the Prognos analysis focuses primarily on which regions of Germany will experience particularly strong economic growth by 2020. (Source: www.handelsblatt.com)
The experts at Prognos also see Berlin, among other places, as a driver of growth. The federal capital’s gross value added is expected to rise by 9 to 11 percent by 2030. For the Berlin area, the forecast is in some cases even more optimistic—economic growth of 11 to 28 percent is predicted for the districts of Potsdam-Mittelmark, Dahme-Spreewald, and Oder-Spree. Similar strong growth is predicted for other major cities in eastern Germany, including Leipzig, Dresden, Halle (Saale), Magdeburg, and Cottbus.
Strong Metropolitan Regions
According to the forecast, not only Berlin but also the other major cities are set to experience strong growth. Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt am Main, Cologne, and Stuttgart are each poised for an 11 to 28 percent jump in economic strength. As in the case of Berlin, the surrounding areas of these major cities also benefit enormously from their influence. All metropolitan regions are expected to experience above-average growth by 2030.
For real estate investors, these figures are extremely interesting. After all, cities and regions poised for both strong population growth and above-average economic growth are also likely to be among the winners in terms of their real estate markets.
